Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.000183 0.000204 0.000226 0.000251 0.000279 0.000310 0.000347
2025-02-16 0.000143 0.000172 0.000206 0.000248 0.000301 0.000364 0.000446
2025-02-23 0.000119 0.000151 0.000191 0.000245 0.000317 0.000410 0.000541
2025-03-02 0.000104 0.000138 0.000183 0.000247 0.000336 0.000460 0.000646
2025-03-09 0.000092 0.000127 0.000175 0.000246 0.000351 0.000504 0.000747
2025-03-16 0.000080 0.000114 0.000161 0.000235 0.000350 0.000523 0.000813
2025-03-23 0.000073 0.000107 0.000157 0.000237 0.000365 0.000568 0.000925
2025-03-30 0.000069 0.000104 0.000157 0.000246 0.000393 0.000636 0.001085
2025-04-06 0.000063 0.000097 0.000150 0.000240 0.000396 0.000664 0.001180
2025-04-13 0.000056 0.000088 0.000139 0.000229 0.000387 0.000669 0.001231
2025-04-20 0.000053 0.000085 0.000136 0.000230 0.000401 0.000715 0.001369
2025-04-27 0.000051 0.000083 0.000137 0.000236 0.000425 0.000783 0.001561
2025-05-04 0.000047 0.000078 0.000131 0.000232 0.000429 0.000816 0.001688
2025-05-11 0.000044 0.000075 0.000129 0.000234 0.000445 0.000874 0.001883
2025-05-18 0.000041 0.000071 0.000125 0.000232 0.000453 0.000918 0.002056
2025-05-25 0.000039 0.000068 0.000123 0.000233 0.000469 0.000980 0.002283
2025-06-01 0.000037 0.000066 0.000120 0.000233 0.000480 0.001034 0.002500
2025-06-08 0.000033 0.000061 0.000112 0.000223 0.000469 0.001036 0.002585
2025-06-15 0.000032 0.000059 0.000111 0.000224 0.000484 0.001099 0.002846
2025-06-22 0.000031 0.000059 0.000112 0.000232 0.000516 0.001210 0.003265
2025-06-29 0.000029 0.000056 0.000108 0.000228 0.000515 0.001240 0.003457
2025-07-06 0.000027 0.000051 0.000101 0.000216 0.000499 0.001225 0.003509
2025-07-13 0.000026 0.000050 0.000100 0.000218 0.000513 0.001294 0.003842